Based on current supply visibilities (imports / India mfg / new launches), 75% of India’s population (above 18 years of age) will get vaccinated by October’21, Investec said.
This assumes all of the manufactured/imported vaccines can be administered by India’s existing health care infrastructure setup.
“We expect a total of 8 vaccines to be available by October including Pfizer/Novavax/JnJ/Cadila/Biologically E”, it said.
Supply will ramp up to 200m doses/month by August from current levels of 50- 60m and 250m plus doses/month by October.
Pricing will be different across vaccines and across channels (Central Govt; State Govt; Private). The report said vaccines from Sputnik; J&J; Pfizer; Novavax are likely to get imported first on launch and then later get manufactured in India (so far Pfizer has no tie-ups for manufacturing in India).
Supply constraint is likely to ease with new launches to aid. “Given the recent capacity ramp-up announcements by both Serum & Bharat Biotech, and the recent approval for Sputnik V, we expect total monthly supplies to ramp upto 200m doses/month by August from the current levels of 50-60m doses,” Investec said.
Serum is expected to ramp up monthly capacity from 70m to 100m over the next few months whereas Bharat Biotech to ramp up from 7-8m currently to 50m by Jun & 60-70m by Sep-Oct’21. Sputnik V to start selling in India since May’21 (initially through imports) and will be supplying 25m doses monthly by Jul’21 – this could be higher initially.
“Apart from Sputnik launch in May’21, we expect Cadila & J&J to launch by June/July 21. Pfizer is expected to launch in September’21”, Investec said.
Recently, Serum announced that Novavax could launch in India sooner than expected – June vs October earlier, once it gets a EUA in the US. All new launches combined should supply 50-60m doses monthly by October thus taking the total monthly supply from 200m doses in August to 250 m by October, Investec said.
Investec said both Serum & Bharat Biotech are the key beneficiaries as we expect them to occupy a large share in CY21 given huge capacities and early entry in the Indian market. Sputnik V, with its imports and local manufacturers, should be the next biggest player with a 10-15% value share. New players would share the remainder.
“We do not see a huge ramp-up by most of these new players given a large part of India’s requirements would be fulfilled by then. At a net margin of 30%, the profit pool is Rs 150bn ($2bn) just in CY21 -Serum / Bharat Bio / Sputnik / Cadila may get the most of it. It appears that the payback periods could be short. This is without counting the possibility of a multi-year opportunity in India & export markets. Given the pandemic scenario and the large profit pool, we believe Govt to renegotiate pricing”, Investec said.